We Are Four-Year Cycle Purists

Epoch 1 is the outlier. The genesis block was mined Jan 3, 2009 - but Bitcoin had no price for ~9 months, until New Liberty Standard set the first rate (~$0.0008) that October and the first trade cleared 5,050 BTC for $5.02. No real exchange existed until 2010, which is why 2009 stands alone here. From 2010-2013 it ran from cents to $1,150 in one near-continuous markup (with a violent 2011 shakeout mid-run) - the halving clock hadn't set a rhythm yet, so the two-down-two-up beat doesn't apply.

From Epoch 2 on, the beat runs clean: two years down, two years up, each epoch closing on a halving. Read the columns and a second rhythm appears - in every phase the professionals move first (accumulate the bottom, position the markup) and retail follows a year later (capitulates, then chases the top). We're in Epoch 5 now, the Bear · Pros-accumulate year - Epochs 6-9 project the same rhythm forward.

* projected - mid estimate $50K, target Oct 31 2026 (~925 days post-halving, matching the last two cycles' ~890–925d cadence). The shape repeats; only the amplitude compresses - each cycle's trough-to-peak run has collapsed from ~114× (2015→17) to ~21× (2018→21) to ~8× (2022→25), per CoinGecko data.

Real daily highs and lows (CoinGecko, series begins 2013). The tell is the last column: yearly swings have collapsed from +2,408% in 2017 to +64% in 2025. Same rhythm, a fraction of the amplitude - the cycle bending in hard numbers, not just theory.

Every peak sits 12–18 months after a halving; every bottom ~a year later. Plotted on a log axis, the four-year measure is unmistakable - and the projected fifth trough (dashed) falls right on beat.

Each halving cuts new supply in half. Four times it has kicked off a bull market within 12–18 months. We are ~2 years into Epoch 5 - the accumulation stretch before the next markup.

First cycle to bottom with the Fed on hold (3.50–3.75%) rather than easing - which is exactly why the low is more rounded and drawn-out than a sharp capitulation spike. Bending, on schedule.

Professionals move months ahead of retail - early to accumulate the bottom, early to exit the top. That lag is the edge purists press each cycle.

FDV = price × supply (20.11M BTC, projected Sep–Nov 2026). The $1T line lands at ~$49,700 - dead center of our ~$50K mid-case bottom. Below it, BTC is a sub-trillion-dollar asset; history says that's where the cycle low gets bought.

Track the countdown to the anticipated cycle low → Open the $BTC Bottom Countdown ▸

* highly speculative - anchored only to the four-year cadence and shrinking cycle multiples (each peak a smaller multiple than the last). The timing is the purist's high-conviction call; the prices are illustrative, not targets. Our view: the 2030 bear tags $90–99K - the last time bitcoin trades under $100K.

The ladder is lengthening. The early rungs each cleared in a cycle or two. Then it slowed: $100K is a three-cycle clear - Cycle 4 stalled at $69K, Cycle 5 broke through, and the 2030 bear should tag $90–99K one last time before it holds for good. From there, $100K → $1M may take four to six cycles, and $10M may not clear until the 2100s. Diminishing 10×s are the same maturing that shrinks each drawdown.

The hard part is over - 95% of all the bitcoin that will ever exist already does. The final 5% drips out over the next ~114 years and 28 more halvings, each one cutting new supply in half again. The metronome doesn't stop at Epoch 5; it keeps time until the subsidy rounds to zero.

Two centuries, one arc: explosive early adoption gives way to a long, decelerating climb. The four-year rhythm keeps ticking underneath - but each swing's amplitude compresses until price is simply slow, steady, and up. Log scale · illustrative of the shape, not a price prediction.

For a species that leaves its atmosphere, "noon" stops meaning anything - a sunrise is just local weather. What survives is a clock built from math and energy, carried and validated by everyone who holds a piece of it. The four-year cycle is our calendar; the timechain is the clock underneath it - the only one that needs no keeper.