Estimated bottom window
Jun 24
Oct 1 ◂ window ▸ Nov 30
Nov 30
until anticipated bottom
Anticipated bottom price — low / mid / high
Low · deep bear
$42K
−67% from ATH
Mid · base case
$50K
−60% from ATH
High · shallow
$55K
−56% from ATH
Centered on the realized-price / whale-basis zone (~$49–54K). The 200-week MA (~$60K) called every prior bottom — but never with the Fed on hold.
Elapsed
Bottom window (Oct 1–Nov 30)
Now
Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle
Bottoms land roughly a year after the peak (faster in the early days) — and shallower each cycle
* projected — bottom = $50K mid estimate, target Oct 31 2026 (~925 days post-halving, matching the last two cycles' ~890–925d cadence). Drawdowns shrink each cycle as BTC matures into a macro asset — the basis for a shallower low this time.
Anatomy of the 4-Year Cycle
Roughly ~2 years of bull, ~2 years of bear — anchored to each Bitcoin halving
2009–13
2014–17
2018–21
2022–25
2026–29 · now
1 · Accumulation
Bear bottom
Pros buy quietly · retail has capitulated or left entirely
2 · Markup
Bull · ~2 yrs
Pros already positioned · retail piles in late, chasing the climb
3 · Distribution
The top
Pros sell into euphoria · retail buys the top
4 · Markdown
Bear · ~2 yrs
Pros are already out · retail holds losses, sells the bottom
This cycle, year by year — 2026 → 2029
At every stage, professionals move months ahead of retail — early to accumulate the bottom, early to exit the top. Retail is consistently one phase behind, and that lag is the edge smart money presses each cycle.